The Scottish question

Two political heavyweights are squaring up to each other over the future of the United Kingdom.

In the red, white and blue corner, fighting to preserve the Union, stands the Prime Minister, David Cameron, who has single-handedly transformed the image of “the nasty party”. In the tartan corner is the First Minister of Scotland, Alex Salmond, whose immense political skills have revolutionised the political landscape north of the border and made Scottish independence a real possibility.

Who will come out on top when the referendum finally takes place?

Margaret Thatcher once said that government policies must “work with the grain of human nature”. If she was right – and I’m sure she was – then Alex Salmond stands a great chance.  Recent surveys show that the people of Scotland overwhelmingly feel more Scottish than British. Of course “feeling Scottish” isn’t the same as “wanting independence”, but the fact that the Scottish National Party, led by Salmond, has done so spectacularly well in recent elections suggests a strong link.

But Cameron too has plenty in his favour. His “vote no” campaign will receive the support of all three main political parties, and he will no doubt take every opportunity to remind the people of Scotland of the sheer momentousness and, he will argue, irreversibility, of a “yes” vote. He also, by a slight margin, has current opinion polls in his favour.

Watching Cameron and Salmond slugging it out over the coming months will be a magnificent spectacle for those of us who are fascinated by political debate, but neutral on this particular issue.

So far, by a small margin, it’s advantage Salmond.